Nuclear bombs and missiles market to reach $126 billion by 2030

China, Pakistan and India are expected to see fastest growth.
Ameya Paleja

The nuclear bombs and missiles market is set to witness growth in this decade as market capitalization will reach $126 billion, Allied Market Research said in a recent report. 

Back in 1994, Ukraine had signed on to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and declared itself a non-nuclear state. Even after the annexation of Crimea, the country remained committed to its non-nuclear status and found itself at a disadvantage with Russia threatening to attack its borders. Given that the Ukrainian conflict has continued unabated for over a month now, it is likely that countries will move toward nuclear weapons adversaries. Although a nuclear war would be catastrophic for one and all, the weapon serves as a good deterrence measure during periods of uncertainty. 

Diversified but depleting nuclear arsenal

Countries such as the U.S. and U.K have diversified their nuclear arsenal into aircraft-based bombs, land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Nuclear weapons are also available on the basis of ranges varying from under 621 miles (1,000 km) to over 3,100 miles (5,000 km).

During the Cold War era, both the U.S. and Russia rapidly scaled up their nuclear arsenal in a bid to establish strategic and political dominance. At the beginning of this decade, the U.S. had over 5,550, and Russia had over 6,255 nuclear warheads, of which a considerable number are expected to retire by the decade's end. 

Therefore, both these countries are expected to push their spending on nuclear weapons in the coming few years, the report said. U.S President Joe Biden's recent defense spending proposal is the highest the country has seen in peace times and a fair bit is expected to be spent on modernizing the nuclear triad. The report estimates that by the end of the decade, both Russia and the U.S. would have increased the number of their nuclear warheads to more than 6,000 apiece. 

Market growth potential

The report also revealed that it would be the smaller, aircraft deployable and land missile-based warheads that would be preferred in the near future, even though SLBMs were a preferred choice of weapon in the decade ending 2020. 

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Overall, the market for nuclear bombs and missiles is expected to grow nearly 73 percent, up from $72.64 billion in 2020 to reach $126.34 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 5.4 percent in this decade.  

However, unlike previously, where the West has led on nuclear weapons, it is Asia-Pacific that will dominate the growth of the market. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Indian subcontinent along with China's plans to build silos for nuclear weapons will make the region a top destination for nuclear armaments as the three countries rush to strengthen their arsenal. 

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