Scientists predict human lifespan record could be broken by 2060
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Whether or not there is a limit to the human lifespan has been a subject of debate for millennia.
However, estimates indicate that the maximum lifespan has increased throughout recorded history. For instance, the late Bronze Age’s Hebrews regarded 80 years as the maximum human length, then 1,000 years later, the Romans considered it to be 100 years.
Skiping to the present, Jeanne Calment, who died in 1997 at the age of 122, currently holds the world record for the oldest person. Despite advances in medical science, no one has been able to break this record so far.
According to a new study, humans are yet to achieve the maximum lifespan, and the existing record could be broken in the coming decades by 2060. The research paper suggests that “if there is a maximum limit to the human lifespan, we are not yet approaching it.”
Japanese women may surpass this record
Scientists from the University of South Florida and the University of Georgia led this new study.
They used a mathematical model to predict mortality trends for the upcoming years. A historical and current mortality data set of people aged 50 to 100 (born between the 1700s and the end of 1900s up to 1969) from 19 countries was analyzed for this purpose. This calculation was used to predict the ages that people may reach in the future.
“We find that cohorts born between around 1900 and 1950 are experiencing historically unprecedented mortality postponement but are still too young to break longevity records. As these cohorts attain advanced ages in coming decades, longevity records may therefore increase significantly,” the study authors write.
According to statistical analysis, Japanese women, in particular, may live to be 122 in the coming decades. Individuals born in the 1930s or 1940s are also expected to break life longevity records in the coming decades if they have good health and medical care.
However, there is a lot of ongoing debate around this topic, and not all researchers are convinced by the result based of this study. It does not appear that it will be resolved anytime soon.
The study is published in the journal PLOS One.
Study abstract:
A key but unresolved issue in the study of human mortality at older ages is whether mortality is being compressed (which implies that we may be approaching a maximum limit to the length of life) or postponed (which would imply that we are not). We analyze historical and current population mortality data between ages 50 and 100 by birth cohort in 19 currently-industrialized countries, using a Bayesian technique to surmount cohort censoring caused by survival, to show that while the dominant historical pattern has been one of mortality compression, there have been occasional episodes of mortality postponement. The pattern of postponement and compression across different birth cohorts explain why longevity records have been slow to increase in recent years: we find that cohorts born between around 1900 and 1950 are experiencing historically unprecedented mortality postponement, but are still too young to break longevity records. As these cohorts attain advanced ages in coming decades, longevity records may therefore increase significantly. Our results confirm prior work suggesting that if there is a maximum limit to the human lifespan, we are not yet approaching it.
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