Artificial Intelligence Could Dominate the World Sooner Than Most People Think

Kathleen Villaluz

Despite warnings from scholars and industry leaders that automated robots will soon be taking over the world, developments in artificial intelligence are still being actively pursued on a global level. Just recently, Elon Musk sat down with American policy makers and pointed out to them that AI regulations must be put in place sooner rather than later. With the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence, the OpenAI founder believes that AI is a "fundamental risk to the existence of human civilization". With that said, when will this AI take over actually happen? How soon before humans are superseded with fully automated robots? A group of researchers from the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford conducted a study to gauge when exactly artificial intelligence will outperform humans in terms of different skills and jobs.

Artificial intelligence take over is going to happen sooner than most people think

Katja Grace, an AI forecasting researcher at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute at the University of Oxford, conducted a survey by asking 1,634 AI researchers around the world what their predictions are regarding when artificial intelligence would defeat humans in certain tasks or jobs.

352 out of the 1,634 academics they asked have responded with their predictions and after Grace's team has analyzed the data, they published their compelling findings in a paper. The team evaluated the median dates of the hundreds of predictions from various credible sources and have arrived with the following results.

At the early years during the third decade of the second millennia, artificial intelligence will most certainly supersede human skills when it comes to language translation (2024), writing secondary level essays (2026), and operating and driving trucks by 2027.

More specific jobs which require a deeper interaction with humans will take a while for artificial intelligence to master. And it won't be until 2031 when AI robots could serve as retail assistants or write highly acclaimed novels (by 2049). Moreover, despite numerous breakthroughs in the use of automated tools in the field of surgery, it will take more than three decades before AI robots could function as autonomous surgeons (by 2053).

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Artificial intelligence predicted take over

[Image Source: University of Oxford]

Asians beg to differ with Western world predictions

Grace's global survey also revealed the different professional opinions of academics from various parts of the world. In general, Asian researchers who responded to Grace's survey believed that "high-level machine intelligence" or HMLI will take over specific human jobs in 30 years time (from 2016). On the other hand, academics in the North America region predicted the HMLI won't be around until 74 years later after the survey was conducted.

According to the study, HMLI is achieved when "unaided machine can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers".

The study also predicted that HMLI will outperform humans, within the next 10 to 15 years, when it comes to assembling Lego and playing a world series of poker.    artificial intelligence survey

[Image Source: University of Oxford]

Whether it's 30 or 74 years, artificial intelligence or HMLI will inevitably dominate the world. That's why Elon Musk was persistent in educating the American politicians about the future side effects of AI. Renowned physicist Stephen Hawking also warned against the rise of AI and how it can be used by the few to oppress the many.