Australia to soon learn the fate of $170 billion nuke submarine program

Australia could soon learn some fundamental information about the Aukus submarine program, which may cost over $170 billion and take decades to complete.

The Aukus program is still a "black box," according to Tom Corben, a foreign policy and defense research fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

"We're just speculating until we get the announcement," said Corben.

The Australian prime minister, Anthony Albanese, could make an announcement during his slated trip to the U.S. in March, The Guardian reported on Saturday. 

Scott Morrison, who was the prime minister at the time, abandoned the Aukus plan in favor of the purchase of "at least" eight nuclear-powered submarines in 2021 in favor of a plan to purchase 12 of France's conventional Attack class submarines.

It was originally discussed if Australia would purchase a U.S. or a U.K. boat, but both nations are already developing their next-generation submarines.

While the U.K.'s Astute class is still being designed to be replaced by SSN(R), the U.S. is currently building 19 Virginia class submarines, which will be replaced by the next-generation SSN(X) starting in the mid-2030s.

The Aukus nations seek greater capabilities, but Australia's decision-making process is not only based on technological requirements.

Could the U.S. accommodate? 

The Collins class is slated to retire before any new submarines are anticipated to be made available, leaving Australia with a capability gap.

These submarines cannot be purchased "off the shelf" from a large international retailer. While the older ones are urgently required by their respective navies, the younger ones, still in the design stage, are years away from even beginning trials. 

And due to the timelines' extension into the 2040s, experts are concerned about how Australia will close its capability gap.

There have been fears that the American industrial base, which is nearly exhausted from building its own submarine force, may not be able to assist Australia as well.

Corben asserts that the U.S. won't be building the submarines by itself, supporting the notion that the project will be shared among the three countries.

Peter Dutton, the leader of the opposition, has cautioned against choosing a new U.K. design. 

Rumors about the project have been rife since 2016, when France, Germany, and Japan were vying to build a successor for Australia's aging Collins-class fleet. France prevailed, but Australia chose the Aukus program in 2021.

The nations of the Aukus are seeking greater capabilities, but Australia's decision-making process is still unclear and does not just take into account technological requirements.

There have been fears that the U.S. industrial base, which is nearly exhausted from building its own submarine fleets, may not be able to help Australia.

"The bottom line is that the U.S. is not going to build the subs on its own," The Guardian noted, quoting Corben.

The Aukus program's final specifics are still unknown; however, the project is expected to be divided among the three countries.