Navigating weather prospects for the 2024 Solar Eclipse

What are the chances of clear skies for viewing the total solar eclipse? 

Given the moon's shadow will navigate many topographical scopes, weather conditions will change essentially along the way. Dissimilar to the 2017 total eclipse that happened in a generally turbulent weather-free August, the 2024 eclipse will occur in the stormy month of April. 

Safety stays foremost while observing solar eclipses; watchers should never look directly at the sun with optics, telescopes, or the naked eye without proper protection. Special filters are accessible for astrophotographers and cosmologists to observe the sun during eclipses or other solar events. 

The best viewing locations

April is notorious for its stormy weather, and the United States is prone to three active storm tracks during this month: the Alberta Clipper, the Colorado Low, and the Gulf/Hatteras Low. These storm systems can produce extensive cloud cover, potentially obscuring the total solar eclipse for viewers in the United States and Canada.

To determine the best viewing locations along the path of totality, experts rely on climatology data since meteorological weather forecasts are unreliable more than a week in advance. The chances of witnessing the eclipse likely fall between the probabilities inferred from cloud cover and sunshine data.

Unfortunately, the weather outlook appears marginal for regions from Texas through the Deep South and unfavorable for the Ohio Valley and areas further north. Climatological records show little variation in weather conditions from Texas to Arkansas, with cloud cover averaging 60 to 65 percent in April. Staying mobile to avoid cloud cover will be crucial for those hoping to experience the total solar eclipse.

Study Abstract:

As the countdown begins for the Great American Eclipse on April 8, 2024, millions of people are preparing for the rare celestial event. The path of totality, averaging 123 miles (198 km) wide, will stretch from southwest Texas to northern New England, with an estimated 32 million people living within the path. However, with April being a notoriously stormy month, the question on everyone's mind is: "What are the chances of clear skies for viewing the total solar eclipse?"

Due to the moon's shadow covering a wide range of geographical latitudes, weather prospects along the path will vary significantly. Unfortunately, the United States faces several active storm tracks during April, such as the Alberta Clipper, the Colorado Low, and the Gulf/Hatteras Low, all of which can potentially obscure the eclipse path with cloud cover.

Based on climatology data, Mexico appears to have the most favorable weather conditions for eclipse viewing, with a 75% chance of clear skies. However, for the United States, from Texas through the Deep South, the weather outlook seems marginal, and from the Ohio Valley and points north, it appears unfavorable.

Considering the unpredictable nature of weather, it's essential to remain flexible and mobile when planning eclipse-viewing locations. In the week leading up to the event, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center will provide increasingly reliable forecasts, helping eclipse enthusiasts choose locations with the lowest cloud cover probability.

As the Great American Eclipse approaches, the excitement continues to build. Regardless of where you plan to be, staying mobile to dodge cloud cover will always enhance