Study Finds Climate Change Could Cause a Civilization Collapse by 2050

RELATED: 8 CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL MYTHS DEBUNKED

This 3°C scenario, the paper claims, will see semi-permanent El Niño conditions prevail in parts of the world, ecosystems collapse, and will lead to "lethal heat conditions, beyond the threshold of human survivability." Reduced water availability could affect up to 2 billion people.

The fact that this is a possibility means, firstly, that drastic measures are needed to avert disastrous climate change. Secondly, extreme scenario planning is a necessity in the case that these measures are not undertaken — or aren't enough.

"It should be noted," the paper says, "that this is far from an extreme scenario: the low-probability, high-impact warming (five percent probability) can exceed 3.5–4°C by 2050."

The study also claims that much of the science on climate change is "conservative and reticent." Positive feedback loops and tipping points, such as the release of greenhouse gases from melting permafrost, are often unaccounted for in large studies and could amplify warming beyond many estimations.

Action is necessary

The solution?

The researchers argue that the only way forward is establishing a worldwide zero-emissions, industrial and economic strategy. 

"To reduce this risk and protect human civilization, a massive global mobilization of resources is needed in the coming decade to build a zero-emissions industrial system and set in train the restoration of a safe climate," the paper explains.

Movements like Extinction Rebellion and the Young People March are pressuring policymakers to heed the warning on disastrous climate change before it's too late. 

As the paper's foreword, written by Admiral Chris Barrie, explains, "We need a social tipping point that flips our thinking before we reach a tipping point in the climate system."