IEA expects global electric vehicle sales to grow by 35 percent in 2023
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The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023 edition has reported that global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) increased by 55 percent in 2022, and this growth is expected to continue with a 35 percent increase in 2023.
The report highlights that EVs will avoid the need for at least 5 million barrels of oil per day by 2030, demonstrating the significant implications of electrification for the energy sector, particularly for oil.
The report indicates that over 10 million EVs were sold worldwide in 2022, with the majority of sales concentrated in China, Europe, and the United States. China is the leader in EV sales, accounting for 60 percent of global EV sales in 2022. However, Europe and the United States also saw significant growth, with sales increasing by 15 percent and 55 percent respectively in 2022.
The IEA report also highlights the role of ambitious policy programs in major economies, such as the Fit for 55 packages in the European Union and the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, which are expected to further increase the market share of EVs. By 2030, the average share of EVs in total sales across China, the EU, and the United States is expected to reach around 60 percent.
Moreover, the report indicates that the increasing demand for EVs is having positive knock-on effects on battery production and supply chains. The announced battery manufacturing projects are expected to meet the demand for EVs up to 2030 in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. However, manufacturing remains highly concentrated, with China dominating the battery and component trade.
In addition, the report highlights the promising signs of EV sales growth in emerging and developing economies. Electric car sales more than tripled in India and Indonesia last year, and they more than doubled in Thailand. The share of EVs in total sales rose to 3 percent in Thailand and to 1.5 percent in India and Indonesia. Effective policies and private sector investment are expected to increase these shares in the future.
The most dynamic area of electric mobility in developing economies is in two- or three-wheel vehicles, which outnumber cars. For instance, over half of India’s three-wheeler registrations in 2022 were electric, demonstrating their growing popularity. In many developing economies, two- or three-wheelers offer an affordable way to access mobility, making their electrification crucial to support sustainable development.
In conclusion, the IEA’s annual Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023 edition highlights the impressive growth of EV sales in 2022 and the expected 35 percent increase in 2023. The report emphasizes the significant implications of electrification for the energy sector, particularly for oil, as well as the role of ambitious policy programs, battery production, and supply chains in promoting the growth of EVs.
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